Black Friday 2025: Paid Media, CRO & AI Trends Every Marketer Needs to Know
The holiday season is the most critical period for retailers, with Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM) standing as the biggest online shopping days of the year. In 2024 alone, Cyber Monday hit $13.3B in sales while Black Friday reached $10.8B, cementing their place as the #1 and #2 shopping days in the U.S.
To help marketers maximize this golden window, James Jago (Head of Paid Media at Rainy City Shopify Plus Partner Agency) and Soma Toth (Digital Marketing Manager at Prefixbox AI) shared their insights on paid media strategies, conversion rate optimization (CRO), and emerging AI trends. Here are the key takeaways.
Paid Media: Winning the Attention Battle in Q4
James emphasized that Q4 is not the time for conservatism. While CPMs rise, the opportunity to offset slower months makes aggressive, well-planned campaigns worth the investment. His four-stage roadmap for BFCM success includes:
- Data-Driven Planning
Review 3–4 years of historical performance data.
Focus on engagement spikes, best-performing offers, and profit margins (not just sales volume). - Craft Irresistible Offers
Move beyond flat discounts.
Use tactics like gift-with-purchase, bundles, or “buy more, save more” to increase average order value (AOV) without eroding margins. - Creative Production
Lean on proven, evergreen ads.
Add seasonal overlays or text updates instead of testing unproven creative angles. - BFCM Calendar Strategy
Start warming up audiences in September/October with teaser offers, video views, and email signups.
Differentiate offers throughout November, ramping up toward Black Friday.
Extend the momentum with “cool down” sales or founders’ specials after Cyber Weekend.
Pro tip: Ensure inventory alerts and automations are in place to pause ads when products sell out. Nothing is worse than driving clicks to unavailable items.
CRO: Turning Clicks Into Conversions for Black Friday 2025
With traffic secured, Soma highlighted seven + one CRO priorities to maximize revenue:
- Streamline Checkout – Allow guest checkout, minimize fields, and offer fast payment options like Apple Pay/Google Pay.
- Mobile First – With 70%+ of BFCM traffic on mobile, optimize load speed, navigation, and tappable CTAs.
- Site Speed & Reliability – Even a 1-second delay can cut conversions by 7–10%. Stress test your infrastructure.
- Personalization – Use AI-powered search, filters, and recommendations to make discovery seamless.
- Trust Signals – Highlight reviews, return policies, guarantees, and social proof to reduce hesitation.
- Urgency & Scarcity – Show stock levels, countdown timers, and last-chance offers (but don’t overuse pop-ups).
- Post-Purchase Upselling – Cross-sell and upsell at checkout, thank-you pages, and via confirmation emails.
- (+1) AI Agents – Chat-based shopping assistants can guide customers from discovery to checkout, offering a fully conversational commerce experience.
Trends to Watch in 2025: From Q5 to Generative SEO
Both speakers emphasized that the shopping season doesn’t end with Christmas.
- The Rise of Q5
Coined by Meta, Q5 refers to the post-holiday window in January. While CPMs drop, purchase intent remains high, especially for health, fitness, and beauty brands. Extending BFCM campaigns into Q5 can deliver outsized ROI.
- AI Reshaping Search & Discovery
Google’s new AI Mode in Chrome and AI Overviews in Search are redefining SEO. Instead of traditional keyword queries, shoppers ask conversational, long-tail questions (e.g., “affordable waterproof boots under €100, size 9”). This shift has birthed GEO – Generative Engine Optimization. To win in this AI-first search era: - Maintain clean product feeds and structured data.
- Develop comprehensive content that answers related sub-questions.
- Double down on trust signals (reviews, authority, transparency).
Sites that adapt stand a chance of being featured directly in AI-generated results—prime visibility real estate.
Summary
Black Friday 2025 success requires a blend of data-driven ad strategy, flawless user experience, and early adoption of AI tools. Brands that:
- Warm up audiences well before November,
- Optimize every step of the conversion funnel, and
- Embrace Q5 and AI-driven discovery,
…will be the ones driving record-breaking results.
For more details, watch the full recording of the webinar:
